Posted
June 2, 2013
Did
you know that there are no species of cobras native to North
America?...And did you know why there aren't?
Apparently,
we North Americans owe our cobra-less-ness to the fact that every
June 2 some few brave souls go outside precisely at 12
noon (local time—so several times during the day) and yell “Fudge!”
And
you know how much cobras hate fudge!
It
may seem silly to yell fudge at 12 noon, but, let's face it, it's
been working, right? Still no wild cobras in North America!
Of
course I am kidding. I mean, people claim that they really do shout
fudge on June 2, and there really are no cobras running—excuse me,
slithering—about in North America. But this is not a situation of
cause and effect!
This
silly holiday is supposed to bring a smile to your face and perhaps
even a chuckle or two, but it does point out a really important
logical fallacy:
Sometimes people believe
that something affects or causes something else, but it doesn't.
This
sort of magical thinking is evident in superstitions and
pseudoscience. It is why we shouldn't jump to conclusions or read too
much into coincidences. Here are some examples of this logical
fallacy, sometimes called “false cause,” cum hoc ergo prompter
hoc, or “correlation (two things happening at the same time, say, or
to the same person) does not imply causation (one thing causing the
other)”:
If
a football player hangs up his “lucky” rabbit's foot in his
locker the first three games of the season, and his team wins those
three games—are the wins caused by the rabbit's foot?
Note: Most people “get”
that the rabbit's foot had nothing to do with the victories, because
they don't really believe in rabbit-foot-magic. However, they might
believe that prayers to God influence football games. A better
explanation may be that the winning football team is good or that
there are too few games to draw any conclusions.
 |
James Randi says that
every psychic healer he
has investigated is a fake.
Not only do they NOT heal,
they can cause harm! |
If a cancer patient goes
to a psychic “healer” and several months later finds out from
the doctor that her cancer has gone into remission—is the
remission caused by the healer?
Before you say, “yes,
obviously!” – remember that many cancer patients go into
remission even though they haven't gone to that particular psychic
healer—or any psychic healer!
Many different studies
showed that women who were getting hormone replacement therapy had a
lower-than-average rate of heart disease. Does hormone therapy
protect women, to some extent, from heart disease?
Many doctors assumed
cause-and-effect and started recommending hormone replacement
therapy partly for the heart-health benefits. However, a randomized,
controlled experiment showed that hormone therapy actually causes a
small increase in the risk of heart disease!
It turned
out that the original studies showed hormone therapy and lower heart
disease in the same women because women who had enough money for
hormone replacement therapy also had enough money to purchase
healthier foods and exercise equipment and gym memberships.
Two women find
themselves sitting next to each other on a plane traveling from LA
to New York City. After a bit of polite chit-chat, the two find out
that they both came from the same town: Buffalo, New York. They are
surprised and pleased to find this connection and end up talking the
entire 5-hour trip. At hour 4, they realize that they both have collies, AND both of their
fathers are medical doctors.
This can't be
coincidence, they say. Some weird power made them sit together for
some reason that they couldn't fathom. However, coincidences happen
all the time. Scientists and mathematicians have proven that it would
be very strange if there were no coincidences; it is to be completely
expected that there are! Also, in this case, the two women were thinking only of
the three similarities that they had discovered—not all the
hundreds of differences that had turned up during their talk.
This
example of faulty logic is perhaps a bit different than false cause, but
thinking that there is a magical force called “fate” that causes
things to happen feels to me similar to assuming that correlation
implies causation.
Oh,
no!
Wow!
After writing ALL of this wonderful stuff about the serious side of a
silly holiday, I just found out that there IS a cobra that lives in
North America!! The species Micrurus fluvius is sometimes
called “American cobra.” It lives in the southeast United States,
and it is in the same snake family as the king cobra and other more familiar cobras,
most of which live in southern Africa and Asia.
I suppose that the people who created this holiday (and the websites promoting it) didn't consider this snake to be a cobra. It is usually referred to as a coral snake, and it doesn't have that cobra-looking hooded head.
By
the way...
If
you are always looking for an excuse to eat chocolate, I thought I
would mention that some people celebrate “Yell Fudge at Cobras in
North America Day,” not by yelling “fudge,” but by buying or
making—and then of course eating—delicious, rich, chocolatey
fudge!
Also
on this date:
Plan
ahead:
