Posted
on December 10, 2014
Even
though some “modern” scientific endeavors emerged over and over
again around the world, even in ancient times (Archimedes, for
example, looked for empirical evidence from experimentation, way back
in the Ancient Greek civilization), a truly “modern” scientific
viewpoint took centuries of cumulative effort and collaboration among
Asian, African, and European civilizations to emerge. Back in the
early days of the European Renaissance, alongside the blossoming of
art came a flowering of science – partly because of Europeans'
contact with Arab and Chinese peoples who were more advanced in many
ways.
But
the even the most esteemed scientists of that time were still at
least partly entangled in pre-scientific thought. Superstition.
Religious beliefs that claimed that humanity was central to the
cosmos. Logical fallacies about causation.
Johannes
Stöffler, born on this date in
1452, in what is now Germany, is a great example of a Renaissance-era
scientist. He was a mathematician, astronomer, professor, and maker
of astronomical instruments. He was also an astrologer and a priest.
These days, you do not meet too many scientist / astrologer /
priests! But back then it wasn't so very uncommon...
During
his life, Stöffler made plenty of contributions: he made celestial
globes and astronomical clocks, he wrote an almanac, he wrote a book
about how to make and use an astrolabe (a device that helps locate
and predict positions of the moon and planets), and he created
astronomical tables. In 1518 Stöffler made a proposal for calendar
reform – and his proposal ended up being the basis for the
Gregorian calendar, which was introduced more than half a century
later! This is the calendar used almost everywhere in the world
today.
But
he believed that astrological horoscopes could predict personality
and events, and he also predicted an enormous flood, or deluge, would
cover the entire world. He made the flood prediction in 1499, when he
was 47 years old – a pretty good age to achieve, back then. The
predicted date of the flood was February 20, 1524 (that's pretty
specific!) – 25 years after he made the prediction. I wonder if he
kinda sorta thought he would be dead by then?
When
February 20, 1524, finally rolled around, and the worldwide deluge
didn't occur, Stöffler was about still alive and 71 years old. I
couldn't find any reports of what he said about his failed
prediction. Perhaps a relieved “phew”? (Stöffler finally died of
plague at age 78.)
Back
in the 15th
and 16th
Centuries, when Stöffler was an astronomer and an astrologer, the
two were pretty entangled. In a way, astrology was the beginning of
astronomy. But today we have a sharp line between the science of
astronomy and the pseudoscience (in other words, the NOT-science) of
astrology:
Astronomy
is the science of the universe and its contents, outside of the
Earth's atmosphere. Astronomers examine positions, motions, and
properties of planets, moons, stars, and other “celestial objects.”
Astrology
is a pseudoscience. It claims to study how the positions, motions,
and properties of celestial objects affect people and events on
Earth.
Astronomy
is always evolving, honing its description of the universe based on
the latest observations – made with better telescopes and
additional instruments, some of them above our disruptive atmosphere,
and some even on spaceships far from Earth.
Astrology clings to a zodiac and birth signs created thousands of years ago, when the stars were literally in different positions in the sky (because the Earth wobbles on its axis, with the axis moving one degree every 72 years). IF planets and stars really did influence people at the moment that they were born, as astrology claims, astrologers should update the birth signs assigned to each birthdate. But they don't – even when the outdated birth signs were pointed out to them. Tradition is more important than observed fact.
Astrology clings to a zodiac and birth signs created thousands of years ago, when the stars were literally in different positions in the sky (because the Earth wobbles on its axis, with the axis moving one degree every 72 years). IF planets and stars really did influence people at the moment that they were born, as astrology claims, astrologers should update the birth signs assigned to each birthdate. But they don't – even when the outdated birth signs were pointed out to them. Tradition is more important than observed fact.
Astronomers
make predictions, generally very precise predictions such as “the
sun will be eclipsed by the moon at this exact location at this exact
time,” or “the Big Bang should still be detectable as a microwave
background 'hum' detectable in all directions, with a spectrum that
matches that of a black body.” When a particular prediction is
fulfilled, the theory behind the prediction is maintained. When a
particular prediction is proven false, the theory is ditched. This
makes the science falsifiable – astronomers will update their
understanding of the cosmos when new evidence comes to light, and
they will let go of ideas that prove to be incorrect.
Astrologers
also make predictions. However, they tend to be very general and
“mooshy,” almost guaranteed to come true. For example, my
horoscope for the week says that this week is a social time for me –
that I might see an increase in events and parties. This prediction
came true – I already went to a festive luncheon this week, and
another party looms at the end of the week. On the other hand, this
sort of prediction is probably true of most Americans in December –
it's called Christmas and other winter holidays! I also read the
prediction that I may be taking two long or short trips, OR I may
decide to enter a college or university, OR I may decide to market
something, perhaps on the internet, OR I may decide to take new
classes to further my career. With all those “ors” and “mays,”
you'd think this so-called prediction couldn't miss – but actually
I didn't do, sign up for, or decide to do any of that
stuff!Sometimes astrologers make really specific predictions. Remember how surprised I was that our birthday boy, Stöffler, predicted the exact day and month of the worldwide flood – from 25 years out! However, whether the predictions are general or specific, when the predictions fail, astrology does not change any of its procedures for making future predictions. The lack of change based on evidence – even based on failed predictions – is the biggest reason that astrology is a pseudoscience – basically, either a fraud or a fun pastime with no truth behind it – rather than a useful science.
Astronomers
all over the world can check each others' work and discover the same
sights and measurements. Their findings can be replicated – and
therefore backed up – by others. There is no such thing as “Chinese
astronomy” – Chinese people who are astronomers study and work in
“astronomy,” just as American and Persian and English and every
other nationality of astronomers.
Astrologers
around the world use different zodiacs and procedures to make
predictions, and therefore come with different “readings” and
predictions. There is such a thing as Chinese astrology and Persian
astrology and Western astrology. And they're all different.
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